[1]石建辉.基于灰色理论的云南省农业产业结构分析及预测[J].现代农业研究,2020,(1):40-44.
　SHI Jianhui.The Analysis and Forecast of the Agricultural Industrial Structure in Yunnan Province Based on the Grey Theory[J].Modern Agricultural Research,2020,(1):40-44.
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基于灰色理论的云南省农业产业结构分析及预测
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《现代农业研究》[ISSN:1006-6977/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
期数:
2020年1期
页码:
40-44
栏目:
农业经济
出版日期:
2019-12-26

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Analysis and Forecast of the Agricultural Industrial Structure in Yunnan Province Based on the Grey Theory
文章编号:
2096- 1073（2020）01- 0040- 44
作者:
石建辉
云南农业大学经济管理学院
Author(s):
SHI Jianhui
School of Economics and Management, Yunnan Agricultural University
关键词:
农业产业结构; 农业产值; 灰色关联分析法; GM（1; 1）模型
Keywords:
agricultural industrial structure;  agricultural output value;  grey relational analysis;  GM (1; 1) model
分类号:
S-9
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
以2003--2017 年云南省统计局对于云南省农业的种植、林、牧、渔和农林牧渔服务五个农业 产业统计数据为基础，通过灰色关联度分析，得出2003--2017 年，云南省农业五个产业产值与农业总 产值的灰色关联度分别为0.800、0.585、0.753、0635 和0.570，以种植业为主导，牧、渔、林和服务业逐次 递减。通过建立GM（1，1）预测模型得出，在今后十年中，五个农业产业的产值顺序依次为种植、畜 牧、林、农林牧渔服务和渔。种植业的主导地位不会改变，林业产值占比略有降低，呈下降趋势，畜牧 业产值
Abstract:
Based on the statistical data of Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics on agriculture cultivation, forest, animal husbandry, fishery, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery service in 2003- 2017, it is concluded that in 2003--2017, the grey correlation between the five industries of agriculture, for? estry, animal husbandry service and fi shery service and total agricultural output value of Yunnan Province was 0.800,0.585,0.753,0635 and 0.570 respectively.Through the establishment of GM (1,1) prediction model, it is found that in the next ten years, the order of output value of the five agricultural industries is planting, animal husbandry, forestry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. The dominant position of planting industry will not change, the proportion of forestry output value will decrease slightly, and the pro? portion of animal husbandry output value will rise slightly, and the proportion of animal husbandry output val? ue will rise slightly, and the development of fishery, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery ser? vice industry will be stable, and the proportion of total output value will remain basically unchanged.

参考文献/References:

[1] 李艳春.我国农业产业结构优化探讨[J].经济前沿，2006（1）： 25-28. [2] 孙玉刚.灰色关联分析及其应用研究[D].南京：南京航空航天 大学，2007.DOI: 10.7666 /d.d052662． [3] 刘思峰，郭天榜，党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用［M］.北京： 科学出版社，2000． [4] 刘思峰，邓聚龙.GM( 1，1) 模型的适用范围［J］.系统工程理论 与实践.2000 ( 5) : 12－124．

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
作者简介：石建辉（1993- ），男，汉族，河南新乡人，云南农业大学经济管理学院，硕士研究生，研究方向：农业经济。
更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01